{"id":18388,"date":"2024-07-04T07:30:36","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T22:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/?p=18388"},"modified":"2025-10-26T15:02:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T06:02:20","slug":"why-the-future-of-transportation-in-the-us-remains-battery-electric-by-james-carter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388","title":{"rendered":"Why the future of transportation in the US remains battery electric (by James Carter)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-18398\" src=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-1024x585.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-1536x878.png 1536w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-250x143.png 250w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-600x343.png 600w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-700x400.png 700w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-800x457.png 800w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-315x180.png 315w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-1050x600.png 1050w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0-1225x700.png 1225w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uba54\uc778\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0.png 1792w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">What the heck is up with the electric vehicle industry??<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">If you have read the North American media recently you would get the picture that the EV industry is in decidedly poor shape and the future is very uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Here\u2019s some recent news that we\u2019ve seen in the last few months:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-wcbig wp-image-18416\" src=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-800x256.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-800x256.png 800w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-1024x328.png 1024w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-768x246.png 768w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-250x80.png 250w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-600x192.png 600w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-700x224.png 700w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108-562x180.png 562w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uc218\uc815\ubc84\uc804-\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc774\ub108.png 1240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">It\u2019s unfortunately all true.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">So, is this the end of electric vehicles (EVs)? What happened? What changed??<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Let me be VERY clear: <strong>NOTHING has changed in the medium- and long-term outlook for EVs.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">EVs will still be the dominant form of road transportation by the 2030s, and like every new technologically innovative industry that changes people\u2019s behaviours, adoption has its pain points as the industry develops.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Therefore, it\u2019s really important to understand the recent history and dig into why we are at this point with EVs today.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_81 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\/#_EVs_%E2%80%93_A_pathway_forward\" >| EVs \u2013 A pathway forward<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\/#_The_COVID_pandemic_Supercharged_EVs\" >| The COVID pandemic Supercharged EVs<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\/#_The_bubble_bursts\" >| The bubble bursts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\/#_Whats_next_for_EVs_Only_UP\" >| What\u2019s next for EVs? Only UP!<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\/#_Are_hybrids_the_answer\" >| Are hybrids the answer?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\/#_All_new_technology_has_bumps_in_the_road_to_success_EVs_included\" >| All new technology has bumps in the road to success, EVs included<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_EVs_%E2%80%93_A_pathway_forward\"><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>| EVs \u2013 A pathway forward<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">For decades people have been thinking about how to drastically reduce pollution in our transportation, a dream of zero emissions and drastically reducing our reliance on oil and gas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">EVs offered a pathway forward for zero emissions motoring that both completely nixed harmful tailpipe pollution, and drastically lowered carbon emissions over the vehicle\u2019s life. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The \u201cWHY\u201d of EV was clear.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Back in the early 2010s the dream of the electric car came to fruition with the advent of the large lithium -ion battery, suitable for use in cars and trucks. The introduction of vehicles like the Nissan Leaf, and soon after the Tesla Model S, resulted in the volume production of EVs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">These were breakthrough vehicles, and as the decade progressed, they were soon followed by other great purpose built EVs like the BMW i3, Chevrolet Bolt and later the extremely popular Tesla Model 3. What\u2019s more, public chargers began to be installed and EV long distance travel for the middle class became a reality.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_The_COVID_pandemic_Supercharged_EVs\"><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>| The COVID pandemic Supercharged EVs<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Then something crazy happened, COVID hit. This once in a century pandemic knocked the world off its feet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Governments pumped tons of money into the economy and EV purchasing and investing became the flavour of the month. Sales took off, share prices skyrocketed and the EV future looked like it had come! Between 2020 and 2023:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">\u2022 Tesla became a trillion-dollar company<br \/>\n\u2022 Ford had hundreds of thousands of pre-orders for the F150 Lightning electric pickup<br \/>\n\u2022 EVs sold at dealers for $10,000 or more over list<br \/>\n\u2022 Governments mandated zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mixes<br \/>\n\u2022 Chargers were rolled out at breakneck speed<br \/>\n\u2022 A tidal wave of new EV models was launched<br \/>\n\u2022 Model Y became the top selling passenger vehicle in the US, only behind F150 and GM trucks. In fact, it became the world\u2019s best-selling vehicle in 2023.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">An EV did this?? It sure did! Ten years ago, no one would have forecast that!<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_The_bubble_bursts\"><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>| The bubble b<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">urs<\/span>ts<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Yet, the unfortunate harsh reality was that it became<strong> an economic bubble that burst, with the onset of inflation and then high interest rates.<\/strong> Suddenly, car payments became much more expensive, and <strong>the whole automotive industry slowed.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">This resulted in wildly over valued EV share prices tanking, and some poorly thought out, newly formed EV SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) began to look tenuous in their viability, and some went under. A look at the Tesla stock price over time gives a good indication of what happened. They are down by 50% on their all time high, but many multiples ahead of their 2018 valuation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Yet, something crazy happened: <strong>EV sales DID NOT TANK!<\/strong> They kept climbing, although at a slower rate than previously. It was clear that the message of \u201cWHY EV\u201d had cemented itself in consumer minds.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18392 size-wcbig aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-800x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-800x512.jpg 800w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-1024x655.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-768x491.jpg 768w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-1536x983.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-250x160.jpg 250w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-600x384.jpg 600w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-700x448.jpg 700w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-281x180.jpg 281w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-938x600.jpg 938w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2-1094x700.jpg 1094w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-2.jpg 1980w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">However, OEMs, which had planned for extremely high levels of EV mix, based on 100% year on year sales increases, got caught out when EV sales ONLY expanded at 10% to 30% year on year. The result was oversupply, on expanding sales. In other words, a failure to forecast well was an industry wide problem with industry wide consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Yet, let\u2019s remember how far EVs have come. Ten years ago, EV sales were well under 1% of total US sales. Today they\u2019re north of 7% of the national US sales mix, and over 25% in California. By 2035 it will be 100% in California, as well as in Canada and states that follow California\u2019s regulations, which account for nearly 50% of North America\u2019s new car sales (not including Mexico).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Globally, EV sales were up 30% to 3.4 million in Q1 2024 (the same as the annual volume number just 4 years ago), and some time in Q3 this year cumulative global EV sales to date will hit 50 million, with the IEA (The International Energy Agency) forecasting 16.4 million sales this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">In other words, EV sales in North America are only on one trajectory \u2013 up. There\u2019s no going back.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">It\u2019s worth taking a deep dive into the Q1 2024 US sales numbers to gain a deeper understanding of the current situation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">While the US EV registrations rose by 3.8% year on year, compared to the usual 30 to 50% growth we\u2019ve been seeing, it\u2019s well short of expectations. However, it is still (just) ahead of the 3.5% US automotive market increase over the same period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The first place to look is Tesla. They are the \u201c800-Pound EV Gorilla,\u201d with over 60% US EV market share in 2023. Like Model 3, Model Y has been a runaway success due to its mix of performance space, new technology and access to the ubiquitous Tesla Supercharging network. Because of this large market share, any Tesla success or failure quickly superimposes itself on the broader EV market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Despite Tesla\u2019s success, sales for Q1 2024 have dropped by 13% versus Q1 2023, a very rare event for the brand. There\u2019s a couple of reasons for this. The first is that their key vehicle, Model Y, is starting to age. It\u2019s been on sale for over 4 years with virtually no hardware changes, and its popularity is beginning to wane as newer competitors go on sale.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The second is the production ramp up of the refreshed Model 3 \u201cHighland\u201d is taking longer than expected. Even though it\u2019s a brand-new update of a very popular vehicle, sales have been off nearly 50%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">In total, with Tesla off by 13%, their share was down to just over 50% of the EV market, and it thus held down the entire segment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-18396 size-wcbig aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-800x512.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-800x512.jpg 800w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-1024x656.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-768x492.jpg 768w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-1536x983.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-250x160.jpg 250w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-600x384.jpg 600w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-700x448.jpg 700w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-281x180.jpg 281w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-937x600.jpg 937w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1-1093x700.jpg 1093w, https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/\uadf8\ub798\ud504-1.jpg 1979w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\"><strong>However, for most EVs without a Tesla badge, the story was very different.<\/strong> After Tesla, the top two OEMs for EVs are Hyundai\/Kia and Ford (both of whom use SK On batteries) who had sales well up on Q1 2023, with increases of 56% and 86% respectively. These are numbers much more typical of the growth we\u2019ve previously seen with OEMs, and it is repeated with Rivian, Mercedes, BMW and Toyota.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The major reason for this growth is a ramp up of incentives, and a focus on leasing. For OEMs that do not make EVs in the US (or Canada or Mexico), they do not qualify for the USD 7,500 federal incentive, except if the vehicle is leased. By applying the government incentive, adding a factory incentive and a customer down payment, incredibly attractive monthly payments have been offered for consumers, from as low as USD 240 per month. These sorts of offers have made EVs available for LESS than an equivalent IC vehicle, and with huge energy savings to be had on top, that\u2019s a very tempting offer many retail customers are taking advantage of.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Whats_next_for_EVs_Only_UP\"><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>| What\u2019s next for EVs? Only UP!<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Looking into the short-term future, things will only get better, and there\u2019s several reasons for that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The first is that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the \u201c800-Pound EV Gorilla,\u201d Tesla, will be back<\/span> with Model 3 Highland production issues sorted, and a major update of the Model Y due in early 2025. Simply put, they won\u2019t be resting on their laurels, and significant sales volume will return.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The second is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">new models from many different brands with more affordable prices launching soon.<\/span> A plethora of a high-volume models with low starting prices are now dropping, including the Chevrolet Equinox, Volvo EX30 and soon the Kia EV3. This will only expand in 2025 and 2026. While we won\u2019t see Chinese brands entering the US or Canadian market any time soon, they are selling in a big way in Mexico. Make no mistake, the impact of the Chinese OEMs will force OEMs selling in US and Canada to significantly reduce prices, speed up engineering development and offer more compelling product, even if the urgency is somewhat buffered by tariffs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The third is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the localization of production for key EV models.<\/span> By building in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries, the USD 7,500 US federal credit is applicable on cash purchase and finance sales, as well as leased vehicles, thereby opening up the incentive to everyone. The first to localize was the Volkswagen ID4, and this is now being followed by the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Kia EV9, which will result in a significant volume increase. Most other OEMs are following with local EV production over the next 3 to 4 years, including Honda, Toyota, Volvo, Mercedes, BMW and others.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_Are_hybrids_the_answer\"><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>| Are hybrids the answer?<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Another piece to this story is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">the growth in hybrid sales, which in pure volumes terms, is similar to that of EVs.<\/span> Many have pointed to this as a reason that EV sales are flat and that IC vehicles have a long-term future. What we\u2019ve seen from the customer research done here at Vision Mobility is that hybrid buyers are ones that are struggling to make the jump from IC to EV, but still want to take a step towards a cleaner, more efficient vehicle. Buyers aren\u2019t going from EV to hybrid, in fact it\u2019s quite the opposite. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Hybrids introduce drivers to electrons, and electrons are addictive, with the only way that they can be fully satiated is to go full EV. If one looks at previous vehicles for EV owners, there\u2019s almost always a hybrid in there, yet once in an EV, they don\u2019t go back as EV retention is generally north of 80%. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Moreover, plug in hybrids offer buyers the same experience of charging as EVs, thereby increasing the comfort level further.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">These thoughts are closely reflected in current US policy direction and by forward looking incumbent OEMs. Jennifer Granholm, the US Secretary for Energy, said hybrids \u201care the step that will lead to (electrification). We are bullish on that.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Moreover, Korean OEM Kia Motors recently said that \u201chybrids aren&#8217;t a threat to EVs but are the perfect gateway to electrification.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">While hybrids offer buyers a \u201ctransitional comfort\u201d, once the smoothness and performance of an EV drive is experienced and the realization occurs that it will suit their lifestyle just fine, there\u2019s no going back.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">The point is this: hybrid owners of today are the EV owners of tomorrow.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"_All_new_technology_has_bumps_in_the_road_to_success_EVs_included\"><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>| All new technology has bumps in the road to success, EVs included<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">What this all adds up to is sustained medium- and long-term growth for EVs, and this is exactly the forecast from both BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) and IEA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">On the other side of the COVID bubble, the WHY of EV hasn\u2019t changed. The dream of clean air, lower transportation emissions and less reliance on oil and gas is not just still there; we are now FAR closer to that dream.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">Just like the dot com bubble 20 years ago, the EV bubble will have end results that are no different. <strong>The weak players are shaken out, but the strong players will not just survive, they\u2019ll flourish.<\/strong> No one today can imagine going back to a world without the internet, and the same will happen with EVs in 20 years from now. Fundamentally, EVs are a far superior technology to internal combustion (IC) cars, and once the dust settles, EV growth will normalise until there are no IC models left on the market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\">In other words, the learning is <strong>nothing has changed<\/strong>, except that on the road to an EV reality, the dream came with a few bumps, just like almost every other major technological shift in the last 200 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%; max-width: 11240px; border: 2px solid #d5d5d5; padding: 5px 0px; line-height: 26px; font-size: 16px;\">\n<div style=\"padding: 0px 10px;\">\n<div style=\"margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'Nanum Gothic', sans-serif; font-size: 13pt;\"><strong>\u25a0 Related articles <\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18283\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> SK On develops polymer electrolytes for lithium metal batteries<\/a><br \/>\n&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/17863\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Soon EVs will be the only vehicles purchased by lower mainstream buyers (by James Carter)<\/a><br \/>\n&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/14634\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Take the power with you: Why V2L is the must-have feature for new EVs (by James Carter)<\/a><br \/>\n&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/13184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> A passport ensures ethical transparency and sustainability to the battery minerals supply chain (by James Carter)<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What the heck is up with the electric vehicle industry?? If you have read the North American media recently you would get the picture that the EV industry is in decidedly poor shape and the future is very uncertain. Here\u2019s some recent news that we\u2019ve seen in the last few months: It\u2019s unfortunately all true. &#8230; <a title=\"Why the future of transportation in the US remains battery electric (by James Carter)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/archives\/18388\" aria-label=\"Read more about Why the future of transportation in the US remains battery electric (by James Carter)\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":575,"featured_media":18395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1908,1909],"tags":[35,1698,1699,332,648],"class_list":["post-18388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-insight","category-expert-columns","tag-battery","tag-electric-vehicle-industry","tag-ev-sales","tag-evs","tag-sk-on"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/575"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18388"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18388\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":153267,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18388\/revisions\/153267"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/askinno.com\/global\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}